Seismic Shake-Up In Real Estate Transactions

The state of Oregon is scrambling to streamline its public policy in such a way that it encourages (or possibly in some cases, mandates) seismic upgrades to our old infrastructure which will not perform well in a large earthquake.

The latest is House Bill 2140, which requires homeowners to disclose whether their house was built before 1973 and whether or not the home was bolted to its foundation.  The bill was signed into law on June 21, 2017 and becomes effective on January 1, 2018.

The bill passed by a large majority, but there are some who suggest it will be a burden to homeowners.

Frankly, the risk of a megaquake in our region is a burden to everybody, but here we are. It’s hard to complain about a bill that requires two more tidbits of information when selling a home.

Will this affect some home sales?  Of course, it will.  There is a percentage of potential home buyers that will see this disclosure and think differently about a house they are on the fence about buying.  Some will ask the seller to have a seismic upgrade done to the house.  Some buyers may want to pay for a retrofit themselves, or split the cost with the seller.  Some buyers may not care at all.  The point of the disclosure is to pass on important information.

I believe the greatest need for homeowners in the Pacific Northwest regarding earthquake risk is accurate information- so I’m in favor of a mandatory seismic disclosure.  I’m doing my best to be a reliable source of this information by providing affordable seismic risk assessments.

Mandatory upgrades to buildings are a different topic, which I think is worth debating.  San Francisco and Los Angeles have both required mandatory upgrades to “soft story” buildings in the last five years, and the City of Portland has been discussing mandatory upgrades to URM (brick) buildings.  Expect more legislation of some sort in the near future.

House Bill 2140 clearly is aimed at encouraging the textbook seismic retrofit (i.e. attaching an older home to its foundation). Overall, this is good, since there are a high percentage of old homes in the Pacific Northwest that need this work done, and it’s relatively affordable.

Home seismic risk, however, is more complicated than foundation bolts.  The text of the bill, as far as I can see, didn’t mention weak cripple walls, which probably are a more common cause of structural damage in earthquakes. There are actually numerous potential points of earthquake weakness near a home’s foundation that can result in significant damage.  I wonder if some homeowners will sneak through this disclosure with a weak cripple wall that is bolted to its foundation.  Or, perhaps, they will add a few inadequate bolts themselves and call it good on the disclosure.  In these scenarios, a buyer could be essentially given a false sense of security about the home’s earthquake risk. I hope this bill doesn’t backfire in terms of its effect.

My biggest concern is hillside homes (not mentioned in the bill), which are the most dangerous demographic in terms of single family residences.  Some of these types of homes were obliterated in the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes in California, and people died.  If you own one of these homes, I strongly encourage an assessment by a structural engineer (it doesn’t have to be me, but I’d be happy to help).

Whether there is legislation or not, the public’s awareness of earthquake risk is increasing.  This will inevitably affect property values.  Watch over the next ten years or so: structures with lower earthquake risk will increase in value while high risk properties will lose value.

If you’re interested in a home seismic risk assessment, please visit the Cascadia Risk Solutions website.

“The Big One” continues to be a big issue in Portland

Some news today and some upcoming events show that many in the city of Portland are serious about the Cascadia earthquake threat.

The Portland City Club released a report today outlining strategies and steps needed for earthquake resilience in our city.  The report focuses on five areas: fuel, buildings, lifelines, people, and planning/ investment for resilience.

I commend them for taking the time to think through the implications of a megaquake on our city and I’m hopeful that efforts like these will result in action.

One interesting point of news I learned in the report is that the city may soon require a mandatory seismic disclosure in real estate transactions, focused on whether the home is bolted to its foundation or not.

The Portland City Club will be sharing the details of the report on Friday, February 24th.

Another significant event will be the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) annual meeting on March 7th-10th.  The meeting will be in Portland and is titled, “The Really Big One: Road to Resilience”.  Hundreds of earthquake experts will be at the meeting and it should help continue to stir up interest in the topic both locally and even nationally.

I’ll be attending both of the above meetings and look forward to both learning more and meeting others interested in earthquake resilience.

 

 

 

Happy Anniversary, Cascadia

On January 26, 1700, at about 9:00 PM Pacific time, an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 9.0 struck off the northwest coast.

A combination of ocean floor core samples, inland mud and sand layers, ghost forest tree ring dating, and Japanese written tsunami records pinned down this date with amazing accuracy.

Rogue One, structural engineering, and earthquakes

Most structural engineers have experienced a glazed-over look in someone else’s eyes when describing what they do for a living, followed by a response like, “so, you’re an architect?”

There remains ignorance in the public about what structural engineering (and engineering in general) is for.  Other engineering disciplines may be even more confusing; I doubt most people could define the term, “geotechnical”.  Personally, I’m still not 100 percent sure what an industrial engineer does.

I think the fault of this ignorance lies primarily with engineers.  We have an incredibly cool profession and if people understood better what we do, we would probably make more money, quite frankly. Especially if we were passionate about taking our skills and orienting them toward serving the community, region, and world to make it a better place (which is the reason all professions should exist).

Structural engineering seems to be making more inroads into the public sphere in recent years.  It’s always amusing when Hollywood addresses your career. This happened in the latest Star Wars movie, Rogue One (slight spoiler alert if you haven’t seen it).  The movie specified a large building, which reminded me of a dark version of a Dubai hotel, as a site dedicated to structural engineering (among other things) for the Empire.  And there was also the scene of a group of engineers (in lab coats?) being assassinated for apparent faulty design of the Death Star.  Considering the fact that this Death Star weakness led to the downfall of the Empire in subsequent episodes, this was understandable using Imperial logic, I suppose.

The Structural Engineers Association of Oregon has this clear statement defining the profession of structural engineering (good job, whoever wrote it):

Structural Engineering is the practice of analyzing and designing buildings, bridges and other structures to resist forces induced by gravity, wind, and earthquakes and to safely transfer these forces to the ground.

See here for more: http://www.seao.org/resources/aboutstructengr/

Regarding engineering in general, there are a number of good definitions online, but here is my very simple one:

Engineers apply science and mathematics to the real world to solve real world problems.

Engineers and the engineering profession should act as a bridge between the theoretical realm of science/ mathematics and real life.

Consider the large problem of an impending Cascadia megaquake. The science indicating that these earthquakes have happened and that the subduction zone is locked and building up energy has been settled for about 20 years.

Emergency management at the state and federal level has been aware of the threat for a long time also.  The Oregon Resilience Plan, which was a state funded plan addressing the effects of a Cascadia megaquake and its consequences, was published in 2013.

Journalists helped disperse the information about this topic into the homes and hearts of Pacific Northwest residents (thank you Sandi Doughton and Kathryn Schulz, to name two).  For the last couple of years, there has been more mainstream awareness of this issue than ever.  And my experience has been that people are still baffled by the topic and wondering what to do about it.

Here is my exhortation to engineers, particularly those involved in the disciplines of infrastructure (civil, structural, and geotechnical at the forefront). The Cascadia earthquake threat is large enough to involve all of our individual efforts for years. Please consider what part you can play in increasing your personal, community, and regional resilience. We all know more than the average person about earthquakes and what they do to the ground and to structures. Don’t hide in your cubicle or office. Do what you can with your career to help and you will be saving lives when the earthquake happens.

In Portland, engineers know that there are about 1800 URM (brick) buildings which may partially or completely collapse in a large earthquake.  We know many older homes have weak cripple walls, dangerous unreinforced chimneys, and “soft story” weaknesses which will result in damage, injury, and in some cases, loss of life. We know there will likely be long term loss of power and drinking water. We know industrial areas are set to contaminate our rivers with millions of gallons of liquid fuel. Wow, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Let’s get to work.

Engineers are a key to helping bridge our gap between what we now know (the science) and resilience. But not just engineers… every one of us can help and I would argue that we have a duty to make steps toward preparedness.

Science =>  =>  =>  => => (our gap)  =>  =>  =>  =>  => Resilience

Journalists

Engineers

Emergency Planners/ Responders

City and State Leaders

Heavy Industry

Everyone

You and me

How to Cure Earthquake Anxiety

The reality of a potential impending large earthquake in the Pacific Northwest has made its way to the general public in the last few years.  When the New Yorker article “The Really Big One” came out in the summer of 2015, many of us were shocked and genuinely scared.  After some initial shock wore off, people reacted in a number of ways ranging from buying earthquake insurance to storing up food and water to just living with a new level of anxiety they hadn’t known before (the latter probably being the most common reaction).  I recall talking to an insurance agent soon afterward and he told me that it was crazy how many people had rushed to buy earthquake insurance recently.  He didn’t miss a beat transitioning to sales mode in his next statement, which was something like, “you should consider buying some also to protect your family.”

But what should we actually do with this information that is new to many of us? And, to address the title of this blog post, how do we deal with “earthquake anxiety”?

Consider this goofy story as an anxiety illustration:  I was recently in a restroom at Starbucks and the lock on the door didn’t give me any evidence that it worked. This mattered because the door opened to a view of the coffee line and cash register. I played with the lock and couldn’t gain any confidence in it.  It made almost no sound when I pressed it, and it didn’t seem to even change position. Opening and closing the door a couple of times didn’t verify it’s functionality, except for a small, barely audible click. I reluctantly used the restroom anyway, but not without some anxiety.

That’s already too much information with the personal restroom story.  But here’s the point about anxiety: it is caused by feeling like you have no control over a potential problem.  The solution, I believe, is a combination of taking purposeful action that addresses the problem and letting go of control over the things you don’t have control over.

Consider how much lower my anxiety in the restroom would have been if the door had a deadbolt that made a loud noise as it was being engaged and it visibly could be seen sliding into place through the crack in the door. In the same way, adequate earthquake preparedness steps give you confidence that you have addressed the problem and will likely survive “the really big one”, and even thrive in the aftermath and be able to help others.

I just mentioned that the solution to earthquake anxiety is to take purposeful action that addresses the problem and to let go of control over things you don’t have control over.  The first step involves practical actions, many of which could be accomplished by anyone living in the Pacific Northwest.  The second is more related to mental health, psychology, etc, which I’m not an expert on (but see Matthew 6:25-34 if you are inclined as I am to address this through the lens of faith).

I will dive into some specifics in further posts, mainly related to actions we can take, but for now I want to point out that we can only do what we can do.  We can’t control when an earthquake (or any future high stress event) will come, but we can make a huge difference in our resilience when it does.  A head-in-the-sand approach is irrational and will not make anxiety go away.  Also, resigning to the overwhelm of tasks ahead is not a good approach, either: “I’m not going to do anything because there would be too much to do”, or “it will happen if it happens” are examples of this kind of thinking.

The work ahead in earthquake resilience can indeed be overwhelming, but even just a first few steps can make a big difference on an individual or family level than not being prepared at all.  A good preparedness plan will add redundancy to whatever plans you put in place.  This is a topic, that, if you plan to live in the northwest for a long time, is very important.  What should your next steps be in 2017 to make yourself and your family more earthquake resilient? If you have no ideas, stay tuned here…

Cascadia residents pay attention: the Ring of Fire is alive and active

A couple of large earthquakes struck the Ring of Fire in the last 2 weeks: a magnitude 7.8 in New Zealand on November 14th and a 6.9 (according to USGS) on November 21st off the coast of Japan.

I’m fascinated by earthquakes, particularly since I’ve made a decision to focus my career on earthquake resilience.  But even if you’re not as into them as I am, the awesome power of earthquakes was undeniable last week in New Zealand.  And the Japan earthquake is another reminder of the need for preparedness in the Pacific Northwest.

Landslides, open fissures, stranded cows, and the seafloor lifting up out of the ocean are the images that struck me the most.

This drone video of a ground fault rupture in New Zealand looks like Lord of the Rings style special effects. I can easily imagine an army of orcs falling into the ground as it opened up:

And here’s a good article from CNN about the seafloor being raised.  The coast has been permanently changed in a dramatic way (unless an earthquake reverses it):

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/18/asia/nz-earthquake-pics/

Regarding Monday’s Japan earthquake, the Japan Weather Agency is calling it an aftershock from the 2011 magnitude 9.0 megaquake.  It caused a small tsunami and seems to have shaken people up a bit (bad pun intended) but caused little damage.

It’s been estimated that we have a 37% chance of experiencing an 8.0 or higher Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake in the next 50 years.  This is a helpful statistic and I intend to bring it up often.  The main application for us in the Northwest is that we have a high risk of this event occurring if we intend to live in this region for long.  It makes sense to prepare for it, but once you start thinking of the implications, it quickly becomes overwhelming from the individual level up to the state agencies.  The bottom line is that an adjustment in lifestyle is needed for all of us living in this region.  More to come on this topic…

How will a Cascadia megaquake compare with these recent earthquakes?  The magnitude will be greater; between an 8.0 and 9.0 and possibly even higher.  Ground fault rupture as shown in the video above won’t likely be an issue, at least not a primary one, as the fault is off the coast between the continental and oceanic plates.  Vertical displacement will likely occur, as the coast is expected to drop on the order of 6 feet relative to sea level.  This, along with the accompanying tsunami, has drastic implications for the low lying coastal areas. Strong ground shaking over a huge region will damage older infrastructure like brick buildings and 100 year old homes not attached well to their foundations.  Landslides are to be expected throughout the region.  Soil will liquify in saturated sandy soils such as near rivers.  This has terrible implications for industrial areas like northwest Portland and just south of downtown Seattle near the Duwamish Waterway.

My personal mission is to help inspire as many individuals and families as possible to be resilient when this event occurs.  If you’ve started preparing or making lifestyle changes, I’m interested in hearing from you as I’m sure I’m not the first person to do so.  I also want to hear from those of you who want to do something but are not sure what to do.  What are the questions you have and what concerns you the most?

Making ourselves and our region more resilient is a marathon, not a sprint.  So, take a breath and put some thought into this topic.  Don’t lose sleep over it, take action instead!

Welcome to the Cascadia Risk blog

Greetings.  My name is B.J. Cure and my goal is to help residents of the Pacific Northwest become earthquake resilient.  You may have found your way here because you are concerned about this risk and are unsure what to do.

Here’s a key statistic: We’ve got about a 37% chance of an 8.0 to 9.0 megaquake occurring off the coast of the Pacific Northwest in the next 50 years, and we’re currently unprepared as a society for this event.  If the quake were to happen today, casualties would likely be in the tens of thousands, major environmental disasters would unfold, and the regional economy would be crippled.  In fact, it could result in the worst economic hit the U.S. has ever seen.  I was shocked when I first heard these facts a number of years ago, but I am convinced that they are indeed facts, and the threat is real.

Word has gotten out to the public more in recent years of the Cascadia Subduction Zone and the potential for huge earthquakes.  You may not need to be convinced of the risk if you are reading this.  Although I want to be another voice in raising earthquake awareness, my main aim on this site is to direct individuals and homeowners (you) on exactly what you need to do.  This blog is the beginning of this effort.  More to follow.

The facts are a bit frightening, and we have a few choices as residents of the Pacific Northwest.  We could bury our heads in the sand, so to speak, and just continue living the way we have.  Ignorance is bliss, and the odds of the megaquake not happening in the next 50 years appear to be greater than it actually occurring.  No action is an option.  We could also become aware of the risk and do nothing, living with some anxiety about what could happen.  I’m writing this because my choice is to make some preparations and modify my lifestyle so that I can live in this area and face the future with hope.  I hope you’ll join me on this journey.